Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Sting now, pay off later: the Warriors' Monta Ellis trade

Monta Ellis will dawn a new uniform for the
first time in his career this season.

Well, it finally happened. After a few years of trade talks before the deadline, the Warriors finally dealt explosive high scoring guard Monta Ellis.  To go along with Ellis, the Warriors are also parting ways with the 6th overall pick in the 2010 draft Ekpe Udoh. While this trade is hardly a shocker for any Warriors fan, this trade seems to sting a bit more than fans had anticipated.

First off, let’s talk about what the Warriors are getting in this deal. Andrew Bogut is a top five center in the league when he is healthy, emphasis on when. Currently, he’s expected to miss the remainder of the year with a broken ankle, so there’s no way this trade will help the W’s this year. However, if Bogut can return to his 2009-2010 form, the Warriors will finally have the post presence that they have been desperately lacking for years. With this, the Warriors will look to build toward the 2012-2013 season with a healthy Bogut and Curry.

After Bogut comes the odd part of the trade: Stephen Jackson.  The Warriors are getting a player that basically burned every bridge in Oakland before getting traded to Charlotte back in 2009. Jackson is a confusing player; when in the right situation he’s a great defender and a more than capable scorer. However, when he’s not in the right place he reverts back to playing “point forward” - and not a good one, either. He’ll be jacking up random three’s and turning the ball over.  This part of the deal doesn’t make too much sense for the W’s and don’t be surprised if he’s traded again to a contender over the next few days.

What does this all mean for Golden State? And how does it help?
When healthy, Andrew Bogut is one of the best centers
in the NBA.
In the short term this hurts the Warriors no doubt – Golden State is losing their starting center in Udoh and their leading passer and scorer in Ellis. However, if Bogut does pan out, the Warriors could be a much-improved team depending on one thing: if the Warriors suck this year.

The W’s only get their first round pick this year if they finish in the bottom seven of the NBA thanks to a trade with the Utah Jazz back in 2008. Currently, they have a ways to go but it’s not impossible. For starters, we’ve probably seen the last of Curry for the year. With his nagging ankle injuries becoming a reoccurring problem, the smart thing to do is shut him down. And since the team just made the choice they are going to build around Curry, it’s almost a no brainer.

This seems to be the only logical explanation for the Warriors. With the hope to draft a player among the likes of Harrison Barnes, Jarred Sullinger , Micheal kid Gillcrist, Perry Jones, or another great player in this loaded draft class, the losing might be worth it.  If the Warriors can make that happen it’s going to turn this franchise around. As much as we Warrior fans loved Ellis, we all knew the day would come when either him, or Curry would get the boot. It seemed the Warriors were stuck in basketball purgatory during the Ellis years.

The teams were always terrible except for Ellis and Curry, whose talent was just enough to keep Golden State from not sucking completely every year but they never had enough help to make the playoffs. The problem with this is the Warriors never got any better through the draft because they couldn’t land a star player.  It seems management is thinking it’s just a better idea to give up one season of competitive basketball to turn the franchise around. How great does a Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Lee/Bogut lineup sound? That’s a team that can take the W’s to the playoffs with a balanced attack of offense and defense. As much as we are all going to miss Ellis, it may end up working out for the better in the long run.

In what ways does this hurt the Warriors?     
Ekpe Udoh was just starting to come into his own.
As much as we are going to miss Ellis and his 25+ point nights and amazing highlights, losing Udoh hurts more. Thompson has begun to show he can really play so a mix of Thompson/Rush will be more than capable. Udoh, however, was just starting to flourish on the court with his great D and improving offense. When he was on the court, the Warriors had a positive +/- stat and their rebounding percent went up. Best of wishes go to him as he continues to develop with the Bucks.

Next, Jackson is a huge cap hit for a team looking for a fresh start. With a 9.8 million dollar hit this year, and 10+million dollar hit next year, it’s really going to mess up the Warriors’ chances of signing a free agent in the upcoming years. A trade seems like the only way the Warriors are going to get out of this, because nobody is going to want him on this team. He still gets booed every time he’s back at Oracle and now he wants another large extension. Best case scenario is that he’s traded to a team that needs a secondary scorer (Chicago, Orlando, etc.) for a backup power forward and a pick.

After Jackson, the biggest hole in this trade is the heath of Bogut.  A broken ankle is not something that a player is guaranteed a full recovery from. He very well could not return to his old self, losing quickness and his athletic ability. If this is the case, the Warriors will have a major setback because they will have essentially given Ellis up for nothing. Plus, they’d be down a big man and wouldn’t have another one on the roster who could step in since Udoh is now a member of the Bucks.

As a fan, it hurts to see the player you’ve grown to love over the years be traded for anything, especially for a deal with as many unknown factors as this one. Good luck to the Bucks and Ellis as well as Udoh. Ellis was a player who never complained, played hard every night, and did what his coach asked him to do. He stayed with the Warriors after they continued to tell him they were going to build a contender around him while they kept drafting guards like Curry and Thompson. He gave Warriors fans great memories and will always be remembered as a Warrior. As Ellis once said, “I am a Warriors, I’ll always be a Warriors.” How could you not love the guy after that? Good luck, Monta. Here’s to hoping you get that All-Star selection and some playoff wins.

As for the Warriors, it’s time to sit back and see if this trade pays dividends in the long run. After all, Golden State fans have been suffering for the last decade, if not more. If all goes well, this could be a new start for the embattled franchise.

Monta Ellis will dawn a Bucks jersey against the Warriors Friday night at Oracle Arena. That will most certainly be a painful experience for Warriors fans and players alike.

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