Monday, March 5, 2012

Oregon basketball fans: don't get too excited

By Chris Nicholas

With the PAC-12 Tournament coming up, many Oregon fans are exuberant at the thought that the Oregon Ducks might actually make the NCAA tournament, something they haven’t done since the 2007-08 season. At the beginning of the season, many fans and even coach Dana Altman thought that making the NIT would suffice this season.

Around a third of the way through the season, their expectations rose, and now it seems like a preordained thought that the Ducks will make the NCAA tournament almost regardless of the outcome of the PAC-12 tournament. Well, there’s a reason they play the games folks. Not saying I don’t have faith in the Ducks, but I doubt they will sweep through the tournament.

Even for those slightly realistic who say the Ducks will get to the championship game, they should still take an even bigger step back and look at the tournament in its entirety. With the first round bye, Oregon will either be playing Colorado or Utah. Safe money is on Colorado, a team that played Oregon close for three halves, and even beat Oregon, albeit at home. Colorado has an extra game to “warm up” against an extremely inferior Utah team (that Oregon steamrolled 94-48) and could be hot going in to play Oregon. Let’s not forget this year's New York Giants, a team that won seven of their last eight to win the Super Bowl. It is sometimes about when a team gets hot, not what they have done in the past. Colorado could use that to their advantage.

If the Ducks do defeat the Buffs, their next game could be against the Cal Golden Bears, a team that has beaten the Ducks twice this year. I know the irony of saying that right after I said that it’s “not what they have done in the past,” but Cal is a team that many thought would make the NCAA tournament on its own. This should be a big game and a hallmark win for Oregon, provided they beat Colorado first, and they play a full 40 minutes against Cal.

Duck fans, expect the worse and hope for the best in both the PAC-12 tournament and (fingers crossed) the NCAA tournament.

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