Friday, May 25, 2012

Euro 2012 preview: Group C - Italy seeking redemption, Spain fatigued


By Ry Basham Mintz

Group C will see current European champion Spain face off with powerhouse Italy, and hopefuls Croatia and Ireland. Yes, I realize that Spain and Italy’s profiles are much longer than Ireland and Croatia’s, but hey (for lack of a stupid overly used internet subculture term), YOLO.


Spain
Spain enters Euro 2012 looking to become the first side ever to win three straight international titles, and besides maybe a German roadblock, the possibly is definitely within their grasp. Coach Vicente del Bosque has a plethora (Three Amigos reference goes here) of stars on his team, and will no doubt be the envy of many with the depth of talent he has to choose from for his final 23-man squad.

However, speculation on whether fatigue will be a factor for La Roja has been a hot topic of late. The majority of players on the Spanish side come from either Barcelona or Real Madrid, two teams that have the weight of the world on their backs. Every season the two clubs come in as favorites in La Liga, and therefore play with the intensity and tenacity of world-class football players. But because of this, teams tend to take a more defensive role when facing the club giants, choosing to put men behind the ball instead of attacking. This is the exact mentality that most teams take against not only Barcelona and Real Madrid, but also the Spanish national team, and eventually it takes it toll. A quote from Barcelona midfielder Xavi Hernandez says it all. “What did people think,” the midfielder asked. “That we were going to win every game 3-0? I can’t believe what I am hearing sometimes. Do you not realize how hard it is? Teams aren’t stupid. We’re European champions, they all pressure us like wolves. There isn’t a single meter, not a second on the pitch; always ten men behind the ball putting pressure on.” This quote could well have come in the past month, but it didn’t. Xavi was quoted saying it two days before the World Cup final in 2010. This is an appropriate reminder of just how many matches Spain’s Barcelona and Real Madrid based-players have been chasing history on all fronts, not to mention just how far-reaching the effects of fatigue and pressure - both physical and mental - after all that may be. Lets take Xavi as an example. He has, over the past four years, played an average of 66 games annually. Xavi is an example, however extreme, of how much an average player on the Spanish international squad is put through each season at the club level. The core squad of Spain, like Alonso, Puyol, Pique, and Iniesta, play an average of 58 games a year, and that adds up quickly. The final of the Copa del Rey, which takes place on May 25 and sees Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao fight it out for the last trophy of the campaign, will not help Spain’s preparations at all, since at least half of the Spanish squad will be playing in that match. This summer’s competition will see a Spanish side full of talent take the pitch, but will that aptitude save them from their exhaustion?

Recent injuries will most likely cause trouble for Spain this summer as well.  La Roja have been robbed of talismanic defender Carles Puyol, who sustained a knee injury recently and likely will need to undergo surgery - a huge blow for the champions. Until recently David Villa has been a big doubt as well. However, it was just announced that he will officially be missing the Euro 2012, a catastrophe for Spain. The striker had yet to return from a broken leg sustained in December and even Del Bosque had admitted it would be a risk to take the Barcelona forward to Poland and Ukraine, so it wasn’t like this wasn’t expected.

Will David Villa's absence hurt Spain's chances of repeating
as European champions?
Spain, despite setbacks, enters Euro 2012 with optimism. While fatigue may be an issue, the Spaniard’s still boost some of the best players in the world. Spain’s midfield in particular is just out of this world, with players like Xavi, Xabi Alonso, David Silva, and Cesc Fabregas. La Roja’s defense is still sort of a question though, since Gerrard Pique hasn’t been at his best form this year, and has been plagued with injuries for most of the club season. To offset this, Del Bosque will most likely shift Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos to a more center-back position, and maybe utilize a midfielder, such as Javi Martinez, in defense. 

One position Spain doesn’t have to worry about at all is goalkeeper. With Madrid’s Iker Casillas, one of the best keepers of his generation, between the posts, and back ups Victor Valdez (Barcelona) and Pepe Reina (Liverpool), Spain can breathe easier knowing that they have some of the best as their last line of defense. 

Spain is one of the clear favorites to win this summer’s competition, and with the prospect of becoming the first team to win three international competitions in a row, will be even harder to stop.


Italy
After an embarrassing exit from the 2010 World Cup, Italy are looking to reinstate themselves as a world soccer power at Euro 2012. New coach Cesare Prandelli has transformed the Italian national squad, deciding to go with new, fresh young players rather than older, experienced players like his predecessor Marco Lippi. There are some returning players though, like Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo, and Andrea Barzagli, who were all apart of the Italy squad that won the World Cup in 2006. Italy impressed with their qualifying campaign, finishing a top their group undefeated with an 8-2-0 record, conceded only two goals. With their reinvented image, Italy will be looking to leave the shadow of South Africa behind them and reassert themselves as one of the world’s best.
Arguably the best goalkeeper in the world, Italy’s most capped shot-stopper Gianluigi Buffon will be looking to add the European Championship to his horde of accolades. Buffon is currently coming off the 2011-12 Serie A season with 21 clean sheets in 35 starts, allowing only 16 goals in all. He was one of, if not the figurehead who lead Juventus to their 30th (debatable) Scudetto title. In the 2010 World Cup, Buffon left after only 45 minutes of play because of a herniated disk in his back, so he is looking to reassert himself on the international level. After an impressive qualifying campaign, where Buffon only allowed one goal in 6 starts, he is looking like his old-dominant self. Earlier this year Buffon was also named by the IFFHS (International Federation of Football History & Statistics) as the goalkeeper of the 21st Century. With him in goal for Italy, teams will be hard put to find the back of the net.

Gianluigi Buffon will anchor maybe the best defense in
Euro 2012.
Italy has always been known for their world-class defense, and at the Euro 2012 this will be no exception. Much of Italy’s defense will most likely be made up of Juventus’s back four, as Juventus had the best defensive record in Europe, only allowing 20 goals all season. Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci are definitely making their way onto the plane to Poland and Ukraine this summer; however, the same can’t be said for their left back partner Giorgio Chiellini. Italy suffered a huge blow when the Juventus defender strained his right thigh in the last regular season match, and was later seen in tears in the club house, which was taken as a sign that the injury was more major than minor. There is optimism though, as Chiellini has recently stated that he will be fit in time for the tournament, but in order to do so will most likely need to miss Italy’s friendlies against Luxemburg and Russia on May 29th and June 1st respectively. Prandelli will be the envy of many with these three defenders at his disposal, particularly because of their chemistry from playing together all season in Turin. 

Zenit Saint Petersburg left back Domenico Criscito and Napoli wing back Christian Maggio, who were both members of the Italian 2010 World Cup squad, both have been regulars under coach Prandelli, and will likely see themselves reprised in their roles of wingers in the back at Euro 2012. While they don’t have the toughness of Barzagli and Chiellini, Criscito and Maggio both have proved vital in defense at their separate clubs and have improved on their attacking abilities. Defense is definitely one position that Italy won’t need to worry about when it comes to depth, as players like Ignazio Abate (AC Milan), Davide Astori (Cagliari), Federico Balzaretti (Palermo), Angelo Obinze Ogbonna (Torino), and Andrea Ranocchia (Inter Milan) have all shown their worth this past season; Obtaining a place on the final 23-man roster is another story though. If the Italian defense can play at their best level this summer, and with the ever-dominant Gigi Buffon back at goal, Italy will undoubtedly be the hardest team to score against. 

Andrea Pirlo enters the tournament with the
second-most international appearances on the
Italian national team with 82. (Buffon: 113)
In the midfield, Italy will be anchored by Juventus playmaker Andrea Pirlo and AS Roma’s Daniele De Rossi. Pirlo, who transferred to Juventus from a 10-year tenure at AC Milan, revitalized his career at Turin this past season, as he led Serie A in assists (13) and most of the season absolutely dominated the field of play. In Poland and Ukraine, he'll play the role that has made him famous: a deep-lying regista who will use his skill at both the short and the long ball—the latter of which he is easily the best in the world at delivering—to key the Italian attack. With De Rossi covering the 33-year-old in the back, Pirlo will also be supported by the likes of Claudio Marchisio (Juventus), Riccardo Montolivo (Fiorentina), Thiago Motta (Paris Saint-Germain), and Antonio Nocerino (AC Milan) in the midfield. Nocerino in particular has stunned this season, scoring 10 goals for Milan, thus proving he can play at the highest level. Particularly in the first group game against Spain, this group of midfielders will be relied upon to hold possession and battle the Spanish for control of the middle third.  It will be a stern test of the possession and passing style Prandelli has injected into a side long noted for absorbing pressure and counter attacking.

Here, in the last third, lies Italy’s Achilles’ heel. Of the six forwards called into Prandelli's 32-man preliminary roster, only two, Antonio Cassano (AC Milan) and Antonio Di Natale (Udinese), have prior international tournament experience. The other four, Mario Balotelli (Manchester City), Mattia Destro (Siena), Sebastian Giovinco (Parma) and Fabio Borini (AS Roma), all under 25 years of age, have 15 caps combined in the national jersey. Italy looked to be set in the attacking third last year, but then Guiseppe Rossi (Villarreal) tore his right ACL in October, and then when he returned to training this past April, tore it again, and now he won’t be fit to play until 2013. Antonio Cassano was in absolutely brilliant form for Italy, netting 6 goals in Italy’s preliminary campaign, but then suffered an ischemic trauma in October and immediately underwent surgery. It was feared that he wouldn’t be able to resume activities until July, but then the man out of Bari surprised many of his critics by returning to the Rossoneri on April 25th, and even scored in his first fixture back against Genoa. He is a part of Prandelli’s provisional squad, and pending his performances in Italy’s friendlies against Luxemburg and Russia, should be a part of the final 23-man squad. Italy’s chances of advancing deep into the summer classic will depend on their ability to replicate the effectiveness of their defense in their attacking game, and players like Cassano will be needed create the creativity necessary to succeed. It’s what Italy lacked at the 2010 World Cup critics argue, creativity and intuition in the attack that players like Francesco Totti and Alessandro Del Piero provided in the past, which the Azzurri didn’t have in South Africa. 

Now comes the issue of Mario Balotelli. The striker out of Manchester City saw himself left off the Italian squad for their international friendly against the United States because of his recent actions on the pitch that saw him banned three matches. This pretty much sums up the prolific goal scorer’s career, as he has been equal parts football prodigy and problem child. Nevertheless, after scoring 17 goals for Manchester City and playing a crucial part in their final match against the Queen Park Rangers that saw them win the Premiere League title, Prandelli admitted he could not leave such a proven-talent off of Italy’s squad. Barring any further setbacks, Balotelli should see himself representing his country this summer. 

After an absence of two years from international play, Udinese striker Antonio Di Natale is posed to reassert himself on the global stage. Coach Prandelli, after being pressured for the past few months, finally gave in and admitted that the only reason he was skeptical of Di Natale was because of his age (34), and that he wouldn’t fit in the new youthful Italian team. However, after amassing over 100 goals the past three seasons, and because of his limited attacking options, Prandelli had no choice but to recall Di Natale, hoping he will reproduce his success at the club level in the tournament. Parma forward Sebastian Giovinco had arguably the best all-around year in the Italian top flight. The short striker had 15 league goals to go with 11 assists. AS Roma striker Fabio Borini caught the eye of Prandelli with his eight-goal streak in seven matches this season. As he displayed in his first international cameo against the U.S, he can cause real problems for defenses. The former Chelsea youngster will be hoping to make his mark in an Italian side that are desperate for a natural goalscorer. 

Italy will surely see themselves advance to the quarterfinals this summer, but beyond that will be dependent on their consistency at defense and ability to score goals. Nonetheless, with the likes of Buffon, Chiellini and Pirlo laying claim to being one of the best in the world in their respective positions, Italy are without question one of the better sides entering the Euro 2012. 


Ireland
After a strong 7-4-1 qualifying campaign (plus playoffs), the Irish are out to prove they need no “luck” to succeed at Euro 2012. This is only the second time in history Ireland have qualified for the tournament, the other time coming in 1988 where they got knocked out after the group stage. With a group containing the likes of Italy and Spain, one would realistically assume that the boys in green are in for another group stage knockout. However, under coach Giovanni Trapattoni, the Irish seem more confident, and have a great captain in all-time record Irish goalscorer Robbie Keane. Moreover, they don’t have the same weight of expectation faced by some of their opponents.
Defensively is where the Emerald Isle is strongest. Sunderland defender and former Manchester United Prodigy John O’Shea will most likely anchor Ireland’s back four on the right side, with Aston Villa’s Richard Dunne, who was a member of Ireland’s 2002 World Cup squad, complimenting him. Sean St Ledger (Leicester City) and Stephen Ward (Wolves) are expected to join O’Shea and Dunne at the back, rounding out the Irish’s defense. Back at goal will be Ireland’s most capped player and Newcastle United legend, Shay Given. His critics have recently denounced the 36-year-old keeper after a particularly mediocre season at Aston Villa this past year. The Donegal-born player has impressed at the international level though, starting nine games and keeping 6 clean sheets. With a defense like this, teams will find it hard to break through and make clear-cut chances against Ireland.
It is in their midfield that Ireland find their soft spot. Aidan McGeady, who will anchor the Irish midfield, endured a very poor season at Spartak Moscow this past season, bringing doubt upon whether Ireland will be able to make an impact at this summers competition. Handed his Ireland debut in 2004, he failed to score in his first 37 international appearances. However, he netted twice in qualifying (against Macedonia and Andorra), albeit both goals were aided by heavy deflections. Keith Andrews (West Brom), Glenn Whelan (Stoke), and Damien Duff (Fulham) are primarily on the pitch to stymie opponents, so it will be mostly up to McGeady to create chances for the offense. Coach Trapattoni did recently name Sunderland winger James McClean to the final 23-man squad, who will give Ireland a more direct option. Unless their midfield rise to the occasion Ireland might find themselves getting bullied in the middle third by their group opponents who all boast very talented midfielders.

Will Ireland captain Robbie Keane led the Emerald Isle to glory?
Ireland’s attack will be led by none other than their all-time goalscorer and captain, Robbie Keane. The LA Galaxy striker contributed seven goals in qualifying, an impressive tally from a side that often struggles to create clear-cut chances. Those seven goals equaled the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and David Villa in the qualifying campaign. The captain may have lost a yard or two of pace, but there is no doubting the predatory instincts that have made him Ireland's record scorer with over 50 goals. Having previously scored against each of Ireland’s group opponents, fans will be hoping Keane can repeat his past glories and help them cause an upset in Group C. Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Kevin Doyle will join Keane up front, playing in front of him as the primary forward. 

The Irish squad goes into Euro 2012 will low expectations, which will most likely help rather than hinder them, alleviating unneeded pressure. After the recent conclusion of the Champions League, Ireland will take inspiration from the performance of Chelsea against Barcelona over two legs. It showed what can be achieved against a ball-keeping team with the right blend of fitness, resistance and discipline. Irish eyes will be smiling if they advance past the group stage, but any deeper would be illogical to believe.


Croatia
The Republic of Croatia is a country full of football talent, but because of this the Croatia side head into Euro 2012 with high hopes. Although the talent of their squad cannot be refuted, the fact that they’re in a group containing Spain and Italy, makes them advancing past the group stage doubtful. But that’s the purpose of an underdog, to upset the head honchos, and while it may be unlikely, Croatia definitely has the aptitude and grace to pull it off. They were considered dark horses heading into Euro 2008, and their coach Slaven Bilic ended up leading them all the way to the quarterfinals. Their 8-2-2 preliminary campaign plus playoffs shows that they have the ability to win, but will that success translate over to the main stage of the summer competition?

While Croatia’s midfield and attack are known to have flair, the same can’t be said for their defense. Croatia has struggled to replace Robert Kovac, who was a key player and the spirit of the team. Former AC Milan defender Jo Simunic has not been able to find regular playing time at Dinamo Zagreb, in a not as competitive Croatian league, and when he has found his way onto the pitch he has appeared out of form. Croatia also ended the preliminary campaign with 23 yellow cards; only Greece had worse with 27. It will be up to the likes of Ivan Strinic (Dnipro), Vedran Corluka (Bayer Leverkusen), and Gordon Schildenfeld (Eintracht Frankfurt) to hamper the world-class strikers of Spain, Italy, and Ireland. 

Can Lukas Modric lead underdogs Croatia past Italy and Spain?
Easily one of the best midfielders in the Premier League, Lukas Modric might also be fast becoming one of the best players in the world. Tottenham dug their heels in to stop Modric from moving to Chelsea last summer, and have been rewarded as he continues to lead them on an upward curve with a thrilling blend of creation and vision. Modric was a part of Croatia’s Euro 2008 squad, where his majestic midfield displays saw him chosen in Uefa's team of the tournament. He converted a penalty in Croatia's opening win against Austria, but pulled his spot-kick wide in the shoot-out loss to Turkey. The 26-year-old will be desperate to make amends this summer. Croatia's captain Darijo Srna has been a regular on the right flank for almost a decade for them, and is probably their second-best player behind Modric. Known for his ability to score from the midfield position, he only managed one goal in the qualifying campaign for Croatia, leading to more doubt about Croatia’s ability to win at Poland and Ukraine. 

As is the current trend among many of Croatia’s probable starters, many of Croatia’s strikers have seen limited playing time at club level this past season. Bayern Munich striker Ivica Olic, who was a crucial player in Croatia’s Euro 2008 run, has seen limited time on the pitch this past season, and while he is by no means physically fit, he is lacking match fitness and sharpness. The exact same can be said for Eduardo de Silva, whose playing time at Ukrainian club Shakhtar Donetsk has been restricted. Everton striker Nikica Jelavic may be their savior though. He totaled 23 goals in regular season play with both the Rangers and Everton in 2011-12. Croatia will hope that he will be able to replicate his goalscoring tendencies at club level to the international level. 

It’s hard to see Croatia fighting off Italy and Spain to advance from a very tough Group C. Although they have a number of talented individuals, the strength in depth of their opponents may well prove too much for them. Their lack of quality at defense will probably be their undoing at the first leg of the tournament. It is hard to see that a squad so similar to one that failed to qualify for the 2010 World Cup will create any real dent in this summer’s competition. Croatia has all the qualities of an underdog, and now its up to them to shock the world and grab a spot from either Italy or Spain, but for those believers out there I advise discretion.




Editor's note: Can you tell Ry is an Italy fan? 6 and a half Word pages later, I sure knew it.



 

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